NVIDIA will announce its FY2026 Q4 earnings after the market close on February 25th Eastern Time (early morning February 26th Taiwan Time). This report is not only a global AI industry indicator but also directly influences sentiment and pricing from Wall Street to on-chain derivatives markets.
As of the eve of the earnings release, NVDA closed at $192.82. Implied volatility in options markets suggests the stock could move about 6% post-earnings, challenging either $201 or testing $178.
Wall Street Expectations: $66 Billion Revenue, Blackwell Focus
According to LSEG data, analysts expect NVIDIA’s Q4 revenue to reach $66 billion, up about 68% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS estimated at $1.53, up roughly 72%. The data center segment is projected to generate approximately $58.7 to $60.1 billion, accounting for over 90%, making it the core driver. NVIDIA’s official guidance is $65 billion in revenue (±2%) with a gross margin of 74.8% (±50 basis points).
The biggest highlight of this earnings report is the ramp-up of the new Blackwell architecture chips. CEO Jensen Huang recently described demand for B200 and GB200 as “off the charts,” confirming capacity is sold out through mid-2026.
UBS estimates Blackwell will contribute about $9 billion this quarter. Looking ahead to Q1 FY2027, analysts expect revenue to further rise to $72–75 billion, indicating the growth engine remains accelerating.
It’s notable that NVIDIA has beaten Wall Street estimates for nine consecutive quarters. However, most analysts believe the real key isn’t whether they can beat consensus again, but whether forward guidance can dispel concerns about “AI spending peaking.”
Forecasts for FY2027 EPS from various brokerages range from $6.28 to $9.68, a difference of over 54%, illustrating the market’s ongoing debate with itself.
On-Chain Long-Short Battle on Hyperliquid
While traditional markets hold their breath, the on-chain derivatives market is also tense. According to Coinbob’s monitoring of popular addresses, the decentralized perpetual contract exchange Hyperliquid shows a clear long-short standoff around NVDA tokenized contracts (Perp):
- 0xRay (0xRay518): Largest NVDA long position, $16.44 million long at an average price of $190
- CBB (Cbb0fe): Largest NVDA short position, $10.5 million short at an average price of $187
- Continue Capital (Continue_VC) related addresses: $9.96 million long, also averaging around $190
More interestingly, these bets extend beyond NVIDIA itself. Besides 0xRay, CBB and Continue Capital addresses holding NVDA positions also have positions in AI supply chain stocks like MU (Micron) and SNDK (SanDisk), each totaling several million dollars.
The Convergence of Traditional Finance and On-Chain Markets
Since Hyperliquid upgraded to HIP-3 last year, enabling tokenized stock perpetual contracts, it has become a key venue for crypto-native traders to participate in traditional stock markets. During NVDA’s initial Perp launch, 24-hour trading volume exceeded $12 million, and now, with the earnings season, this on-chain trading volume is reaching new heights.
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