A popular wallet group on Polymarket is suspected of being “insider” and has collectively bet on a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31. This move coincides with Donald Trump announcing “effective discussions” with Iran, despite Tehran publicly denying it.
On-chain data shows that on February 28, just before the US conducted airstrikes, six new wallets made large bets on the scenario “US attacks Iran before 2/28,” earning about $1.2 million in profit. These wallets continued to win bets related to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Currently, these addresses have returned to betting around $100,000 on the possibility of a ceasefire before March 31, with some bets extending into April.
Although there is no evidence of insider trading, the unusual accuracy has raised concerns among analysts, especially as the market becomes increasingly influenced by geopolitical stories.
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