Prediction Market

Bernstein's report forecasts prediction market trading volume will surge from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity, blockchain support, and mainstream integration. Industry revenue is expected to rise from $400 million to $10.8 billion, with retail brokerages gaining a competitive edge.

A trader known as epsteinfiles has placed a $12,300 bet with Lookonchain, predicting that MicroStrategy will hold over 1 million BTC by December 31, 2026, with a flawless track record in past bets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from bringing charges against prediction market platform Kalshi under gambling laws, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets. Kalshi, meanwhile, insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings by different states on prediction markets have varied, and the Trump family has also voiced support for prediction markets.

21Shares updates its Hyperliquid ETF filing, confirming the stock ticker THYP, which is seen as an adjustment in response to SEC comments. This move increases the likelihood of the ETF being listed. Compared with Bitwise’s HYPE ETF, the latter has already announced a 0.67% management fee, one of the highest in the market. The Hyperliquid platform’s strong fundamentals attract attention, but given the uncertainty around inflows of meme-coin ETF funds, market demand still needs to be watched.

A major centralized exchange has partnered with High Roller Technologies to provide prediction market services in the U.S. Analysts project significant growth in this sector, although it faces regulatory challenges.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona may not rely on its gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions by states on prediction markets have differed, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona cannot use its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi insists that its business is financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary across states, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from relying on its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling law to sue the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi maintains that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have issued differing rulings on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

In brief A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks. An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard. The

Polymarket announced an audit of some of the onboarded startup projects that have been accused of using allegedly insider trading account information to steer users into making trades. The move is intended to strengthen compliance management and address external concerns about the risks of insider trading.

A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using the gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled to block Arizona from suing the prediction market platform Kalshi under its gambling laws, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets. Kalshi has insisted that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Rulings by different states on prediction markets have varied, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

Gate News message, a newly created wallet named "bullseye123" spent $40K betting that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 or April 18. The wallet holder is currently down $34K, representing an 85% loss on the position.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from using gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets, while Kalshi insists its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

Y Combinator makes its first fully stablecoin investment through the Solana network, paying Totalis, a prediction-market startup, $500k in USDC, and plans to open up stablecoin payment options for all supported startups. Totalis will use the platform to execute stablecoin-to-fiat trades.

Gate News message. On April 14, the prediction platform Kalshi released a video teaser, announcing that it will launch a new product on April 27. The video shows a green spiral gradually forming an everlasting ring, finally displaying the words "Timeless" (eternal). The community speculates that this update may be introducing an open-ended perpetual prediction market without an expiration date, breaking through the existing time-limit constraints of Kalshi’s event contracts, and improving trading flexibility.

The 2028 U.S. election prediction market has opened, and although Vice President JD Vance’s approval rating has fallen to a historical low, he still remains in first place on major platforms. Vance’s net approval rating has dropped to -18%, influenced by factors such as inflation and oil prices. The trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi shows that competition is still intense. Analysts believe poll data may be volatile, and the situation remains unclear.

On April 14, the probability on Polymarket that Israel will carry out attacks against Yemen before April 30 fell to 14%. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will host talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon to discuss a ceasefire and a peace agreement. After diplomatic mediation was launched, market expectations for Israel’s new front were significantly reduced.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from using its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have reached differing decisions on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.