The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 8, hitting a new low for the current cycle, with fear persisting for nearly 60 days. When will the market bottom out?

Gate News update: By the end of Q1 2026, Bitcoin market sentiment has remained under sustained pressure. The latest data shows the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 8 and has remained below the 25 range for 59 consecutive days, making it one of the longest extreme fear cycles since the 2022 FTX event. Risk appetite in the market has clearly declined.

The index combines multiple indicators—including price volatility, trading volume, market momentum, Bitcoin market share, and social data. The lower the value, the more pessimistic the sentiment. The current reading is close to the extreme range, reflecting investors’ confidence being at a low point. Unlike the sharp selloff in 2022 triggered by the cascading collapse of Terra/Luna, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX, this round of weakening sentiment has not been driven by a single shock. Instead, it is driven by a continuously tightening macro environment.

With U.S. monetary policy staying at high interest rates, global trade frictions intensifying, and the dollar strengthening, risk assets’ performance has been continuously weighed down, tightening liquidity flows. Against this backdrop, while Bitcoin has not seen a dramatic breakdown, the demand side has shown clear weakness, and sentiment is exhibiting a slow downward trend.

From historical experience, the stage of extreme panic often corresponds to a medium- to long-term allocation window. After the 2020 pandemic shock, Bitcoin rebounded strongly over the following six months; while the 2022 market floor required a longer period of repair. The current market is closer to the latter—an “delayed recovery” phase without clear catalysts.

Worth noting is that on-chain data has shown signals of divergence. Even though retail sentiment remains subdued, long-term holders are still transferring Bitcoin to self-custody wallets, indicating that their willingness to hold has not clearly shifted. Meanwhile, some institutional capital continues to maintain allocations, with no large-scale withdrawal.

This structural divergence suggests the market may be in a critical transition phase. If the macro liquidity environment improves, Bitcoin could see an opportunity for a rebound. Conversely, if high interest rates and risk events continue to persist, both price and sentiment may keep fluctuating at low levels.