Macroeconomics

As of March 15, China's AI large language models reached a weekly call volume of 4.69 trillion Tokens, surpassing the US for the second consecutive week, with all top three global rankings occupied by Chinese models. JPMorgan Chase predicts that AI inference Token consumption will grow significantly.

Iran issued new banknotes with a denomination of 10 million rials this week, but their actual purchasing power is only about $7, revealing severe inflation issues. In response to the impacts of war and sanctions, many people have faced long queues at banks to withdraw cash. Prolonged economic downturn and systemic corruption have further led to depreciation of the rial.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Xinda Futures research indicates that gold price movements are influenced by rising energy prices and interest rate expectations. The Middle East conflict has kept crude oil at elevated levels, intensifying inflation concerns in the market and suppressing gold prices. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged, but Powell's assessment will impact subsequent policy decisions.

The recent decline in silver prices, driven by global market volatility and changing investor sentiment, raises concerns about broader market implications. This correction may influence capital allocation across various asset classes, including digital assets.

Oil price surges have played a significant role in shaping global financial markets during periods of economic stress. One of the most well-known examples is the 1973 Oil Crisis, when sharp increases in oil prices triggered inflation, reduced economic activity, and led to a substantial decline in st

As the Iran conflict enters its fourth week, markets are focusing on energy price trends and upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the US and Europe, including US construction spending and CPI, to assess their impact on consumer prices and the overall economy.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

The macro risk of Bitcoin is rooted in the nearly depleted liquidity buffer within the financial system rather than oil price fluctuations. With the Fed's reverse repo mechanism losing effectiveness, Bitcoin's reliance on macro liquidity increases, raising concerns about potential market shocks and their impact.

Gold has declined to $4,500 since late February 2026 due to geopolitical conflicts, with global capital markets in turmoil, the S&P 500 down 5%. U.S. Treasury yields are rising, safe-haven assets are underperforming, and capital flows into money market funds have reached historic highs, indicating a market preference for "cash is king." Bitcoin is experiencing volatility and has not yet established itself as a safe-haven asset.

Rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict are heightening inflation concerns, affecting investor behavior and prompting risk aversion in markets, especially cryptocurrencies. Policymakers remain cautious, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts amid worsening inflation forecasts from the IMF.

Facing energy supply disruptions and soaring oil prices in the Middle East region, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed 10 emergency measures to reduce oil demand in road transportation and other sectors. Recommendations include remote work for households, reducing highway speed limits, vehicle traffic restrictions, and reducing business air travel, with the aim of moderating inflationary pressure and stabilizing markets.

Gate News reported that on March 20, Fed Governor Waller stated that if oil prices remain elevated for several months, it will eventually pass through to core inflation. He pointed out that high and persistent oil shocks do not have only a temporary impact on inflation.

Gate News reported that on March 20, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global oil transport corridor through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supply passes daily) were to close, it could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

The Bank of Japan decided to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75% with an 8-1 vote at its March 19 meeting, pausing rate hikes for the second consecutive time. Despite economic recovery, the Middle East situation and rising crude oil prices have increased uncertainty, with some institutions expecting a possible resumption of rate hikes in June.

Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, causing dramatic shifts in global capital markets. Gold and US Treasury bonds have shown weakening hedging effects, while the US S&P 500 Index has declined 4%, indicating asset repricing. Capital flows have moved toward money market funds with high liquidity, signaling that markets have entered a defensive "cash is king" phase. Bitcoin has posted modest gains but faces continued risks.

The Pentagon has submitted an application to the White House requesting approval for $200 billion in funding for war with Iran, indicating that expenditures far exceed expectations. The skyrocketing war costs have raised concerns, with experts warning that total costs could rise to trillions of dollars. Congress will engage in heated debate over this matter, affecting public welfare and the economy, making it increasingly difficult to control energy markets and household budgets.

Gate News, on March 20, according to data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (Philippine Central Bank), the Philippines' balance of payments in February shifted from a surplus to a deficit, with the deficit exceeding 2 billion dollars.