#TrumpShock The Harshest Day in Crypto in 4 Years

Yesterday, the crypto market experienced its worst day in the last 4 years.
The reason is clear: Trump's statements.
But this is just the visible part.
The main issue is deep down.

Why was there such a sharp decline?

Because the liquidation volume was very high.
The decrease in volatility in recent months had eased investors' risk perception.
As the atmosphere of "Bitcoin is now stable" formed, individual investors increased their leverage.
Then it wasn't enough, he switched to altcoins.
The market always catches the impatient — it happened that way this time too.

Let's take a look at the data

STH-RP (Short Term Holder Realized Price) was broken again.
This level, the average cost for short-term investors: 114,000$.
Bitcoin is currently below this cost.

What happened in the past?
When it goes below this level, those with weak hands sold at a loss.
But ETFs quickly resumed buying and the market made a "V" recovery.

This time the difference is this: Trump made the announcement after the markets closed.
So the selling pressure has not fully reflected, the real picture will emerge when the futures markets open on Sunday night.

What could happen next?

No one can know the future.
But we can talk about the possibilities.

I see the probability of recovery as higher.
Because we have seen such political shocks before.
When the same "customs duty" statement was made in April, it had also reverted from the 1-year average.
The Fed is currently not in a hurry, but if things go wrong, interest rate cuts will accelerate.

📉 Important level: 99,300$
This is a 1-year average.
If it drops to gold, $95,000 will be on the agenda — this means that 65% of the total liquidity is at a loss.
Such a situation has not been experienced since the FTX period.

Why is 95K critical?

Below this level is a technical "system risk".
Newly established treasury companies and corporate altcoin portfolios suffer significant losses.
Therefore, 95K is not just a price, but the breaking point of the market.

What is Trump trying to do?

Trump's timing is not coincidental.
He wants to make the statement after the market closes to measure its impact.

There are two paths ahead:

1️⃣ Allows for recession, then revitalizes the market with liquidity.
2️⃣ It does not allow for recession, it directly implements support programs.

Trump is likely to choose the second one.
Because he measures his own success by the success of the markets.

We will see the first reaction when the futures markets open on Sunday night.
The US inflation data will be released on Wednesday — it will determine the direction.

I don't have any altcoin investments, but those who do had a very tough day yesterday.
I am really sad.
In this business, everyone pays a price at some point; some with money, some with patience.

Get well soon everyone 💐
#TRUMP#
#BTC#
#EHT#