BTC/USDT Analysis: Cautious Rebound or Bull Trap?

The current situation on the BTC chart (data at the time of screenshot) and Glassnode analysts' conclusions are surprisingly in sync, painting a picture of an uncertain recovery.

📊 Technical Picture (by the chart):

· Price: $90,256, which is below the key level at $92,000 and under the important Bollinger middle band (~$89,291). The price is balancing at the lower edge of the recent range.
· Indicators:
· BOLL: Price is between the middle band and the lower band (LB ~$84,614), indicating selling pressure.
· Volume (Vol): Declining volume (3.76K) amid falling volume moving averages (MA5, MA10) confirms lack of frantic demand at current levels.
· MACD: Histogram is in the positive zone, but DIF and DEA are deeply negative. This may signal a slowdown in downward momentum, but not a trend reversal.
· RSI: Values around 42-45 indicate a neutral zone with a bearish tilt, but without extreme oversold conditions.

🔍 Glassnode News Assessment: "Early Signs Amid Lack of Confidence"

Glassnode accurately diagnoses the market pulse:

1. Price vs. Sentiment: There was a bounce to $94k , but as seen by the fall back to $90k, there is no confidence. The chart confirms this: buyers are not holding local highs.
2. Key Signal — Spot CVD and Open Interest: The decline in these metrics is a red flag. It means large players (whales) on the spot market are taking profits or not adding positions, while the futures market is deleveraging. Selling pressure remains.
3. Options and ETFs: Demand for downside hedging (puts) and ETF outflows are a sign of institutional caution. "Smart money" is not rushing to bet on rapid growth.

🎯 Final Verdict:

The market is showing a technical attempt at recovery after a correction, but lacks fundamental confidence from major players and institutions.

· Near-term Scenario: High probability of consolidation in a wide range ($84,600 - $93,900 by Bollinger bands). The real signal for growth would be a confident close above the Bollinger middle band (~$92,500-93,000) with increasing volumes.
· What to watch: Spot CVD dynamics and net inflows into BTC-ETF. Sustained growth in these will be the first serious sign of renewed confidence.

📌 Conclusion: The market is showing signs of life, but this is an early convalescence (recovery). It’s too early to talk about full bull strength. Patience and confirmation of strength at key levels are required. Any long positions at current levels are more of an aggressive tactic with a clear stop-loss below $89,000.

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