1.21

This time, there are two reasons for the decline of BTC, the biggest being Trump's tariffs on countries related to Greenland. The tariffs imposed by the US triggered retaliation in Europe, and the US plans to continue retaliating on top of Europe's response. The second reason is that the CLARITY bill, which crypto enthusiasts have been期待ing, has been暂停ed under Coinbase CEO's leadership. The core controversy is that the draft tends to ban earning收益 solely from holding stablecoin balances, which would limit the growth and commercialization path of stablecoins like USDC within the US system. The market originally期待ed the bill to be implemented quickly to end regulatory uncertainty, but it has turned into "delayed关键节点 + industry裂变."

BTC
On the 16th, I提醒ed everyone that the阶段性高点 had appeared, then over four days experienced a行情 similar to a画门. Currently, the行情 has returned to the起涨点 of the previous cycle. I have一直提到 the risks for Bitcoin in the weekly and monthly levels because the monthly level has already formed a death cross at high levels, and the weekly level has broken below the upward trend line. Additionally, the current macro uncertainties could increase the risks for Bitcoin. At this position, we need to关注 whether the 85,000 to 88,500 range can provide有效 support for Bitcoin. If it can support and oscillate to the right, it may延续 upward. If 85,000 is突破ed, the decline will accelerate. From an intraday perspective, after reaching the support at 88,500, we should关注 whether smaller timeframes can oscillate to the right, as it currently cannot be seen as a complete止跌—only a small反弹 after超跌. So, intraday, watch for oscillation and the US stock market开盘 in the evening. Support at 88,500-85,000, resistance at 90,300-92,400.

ETH
Ethereum currently needs to关注 whether it can突破 the 2,900 level. If it突破s, it will likely move down to the 2,600-2,800 range. In the短期, focus on whether the 2,900 to 3,000 level can oscillate to the right. In summary, pay attention to whether the 1-hour and 4-hour charts can底部震荡. Support at 2,900-2,820, resistance at 3,000-3,065.