Crypto_Xincheng

This week's (4.6-4.12) key previews:
April 6
Trump delays strike on Iranian energy facilities again; April 6 becomes the next focus;
April 9
Israeli officials: U.S. sets April 9 as the target date to end the war;
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the April 9 monetary policy meeting;
April 10
The first post-war CPI report will be released on April 10 at 20:30, potentially reflecting the war's impact on inflation;
April 12
Genius: Season 1 will end on April 12, with a 50% increase in airdrop quotas;
Others (specific times not yet determined)
CZ: The new book "Freedom of Money" will

The 46k ETH staked by the Ethereum Foundation marks a shift from "passive selling" to "active participation in the network and self-sustainability."
This is a positive reinforcement for the network, signaling reduced selling pressure and increased confidence for ETH holders. For the ETF itself, it demonstrates financial maturity. In the long term, this will help the Ethereum ecosystem develop more healthily.
In the short term, prices still need to be considered in conjunction with BTC trends.
$BTC $ETH

4.5 BTC Market Analysis
The approach I shared yesterday was that the weekend would be dominated by consolidation. Now that it's Sunday, we should focus on the potential trend changes this afternoon and tomorrow. As mentioned yesterday, the resistance around 67,300 will be key. The price also reached a high of 67,500 before pulling back. That 67,500 level is also the resistance of our drawn descending trendline. As long as this level is not broken, we should remain cautious of downside risks. To maintain a bullish outlook, the price must stay above 66,500.
Today, the focus remains on consolidat

4.4 BTC Market Analysis
First, I wish everyone a happy weekend🌞
Bitcoin usually consolidates sideways over the weekend. The upcoming key turning point is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday. The overall strategy remains unchanged: only if the price stays above 65,500 will there be a chance to initiate an upward rebound. Additionally, a breakout of the four-hour converging triangle needs to be achieved. Today, the market will mainly fluctuate without a clear direction, with the trading range still around 65,500 to 67,300.
If there's no market movement over the weekend, spend more time

Will cryptocurrencies continue to decline after the non-farm payroll report? Will June see the first rate cut of the year?
First, look at the data:
In March, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 178k jobs, compared to an expected 60k (a bearish signal for risk assets).
According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99.5%. The chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by June is 7.8%, while the probability of no change is 91.7%. The probability of a cumul

4.3 BTC Market Analysis
This week is about to end, and there hasn't been much significant movement. The price has been mainly fluctuating within the range of 65,500-69,300, perfectly following the trend we predicted a few days ago. As we approach the weekend, it will once again be dominated by political factors. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, the price is oscillating at the end of a triangle pattern. As long as it doesn't break above 67,800, we need to be cautious of risks, because the current bullish momentum remains very weak and is still trading around 65,500. In summary, as long as it doe

Crude oil rose another 11% today🚀
If it continues to rise like this, the global economy will naturally see inflation accelerate➕, slowing growth➕, and increasing export pressures, leading to a higher risk of recession
For risk assets like BTC, this will naturally lead to capital outflows and short-term pressure

The closer the Bitcoin Bubble Index gets to -10, the closer it is to a cyclical bottom, and the same is true for historical market trends🌞
In this round of decline, the bubble index dropped to a low of -9.31. Looking at historical market trends, whenever the bubble index drops near -10, it’s an opportunity for a cyclical bottom.
From this indicator, we can see that the current sentiment is relatively pessimistic, including on-chain activity, which means the risk is relatively lower.

4.2 BTC Market Analysis
Just know that Trump's speech didn't say anything good. Trump threatened to strike Iran's energy facilities, causing oil prices to continue rising, while other financial indices and futures declined. Trump believes Iran lacks sincerity and has no intention of engaging in substantive negotiations, and as a result, our retail accounts are footing the bill.
Yesterday, I suggested that the market would oscillate around the 69,300 level. If the oscillation doesn't break through, we still need to watch out for short-term resistance risks. Indeed, on a smaller scale, the highs

April 1st Monthly Analysis
The Q2 of 2026 has already begun. Will this quarter continue to decline gradually, or will there be a reversal?
Review:
Recent market analyses have suggested that the trend will mainly be oscillatory, fluctuating around 65,500 to 69,300. Today’s movement followed yesterday’s analysis exactly, reaching the 69,300 resistance level and then pulling back.
This morning at 8:00, both the quarterly and monthly charts closed.
Quarterly Chart:
The overall trend remains upward and unchanged, just a correction after a significant rise.
Monthly Chart:
From the peak of 126K, five

3.31 BTC Market Analysis
Yesterday, our approach was based on the four-hour timeframe. We mentioned that the four-hour level had not yet rebounded sufficiently and that as long as 67,000 was not broken, a rebound would occur. The recent pullback was relatively deep, dropping to around 66,300, followed by a rebound, which is in line with our expectation of a rebound.
Today, the daily chart has not yet shown clear signs of divergence. The next key point to watch is the four-hour level: the more it rebounds, the more it will face resistance near the zero axis. We have seen several previous instan

How many people have been fooled by this Bitcoin rainbow chart in this cycle?
Since July 2022, the rainbow chart has been signaling "relatively cheap dollar-cost averaging," but comparing it to Bitcoin's actual price, which dropped from 25K to 15.5K and then rose from 15.5K to 126K, achieving a 5-6x increase. If you only blindly trust this Bitcoin rainbow chart, you definitely didn't sell the top at 126K because the rainbow chart at that point was just indicating a dollar-cost averaging signal.
Now, Bitcoin has fallen from 126K to 65K, a 50% cut. After reaching 37K in November 2023, the rainbo

What is the Based project launched today on major platforms?
In summary, it is a one-stop app for trading + prediction + payments, integrating the hottest sectors right now.
Trading is directly connected to HyperliquidX, prediction markets are integrated with Polymarket, and consumers can use cryptocurrencies for card payments at over 100 million merchants worldwide, enabling real-world applications that load crypto → real-time payments.
It breaks the traditional single-functionality of crypto platforms; the platform has processed over $41 billion in trading volume, has over 100,000 users, and

March 30 BTC Market Analysis
The recent weekend market movement, as mentioned earlier, was mainly volatile, with a focus on the 67,600 level. Currently, the price is hovering around this 67,600 mark. A few days ago, I also pointed out that even if the price moves downward from this level, it would form a daily-level divergence, leading to a rebound.
Going forward, as long as the market does not break below 62,000, this level is likely to form a daily divergence, making it easier to see a bullish reversal. Therefore, as long as key levels are not broken, the strategy should be to look for buyin

This Week (3.30-4.5) Major Web3 Events:
March 30
G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors hold a meeting to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves;
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes from March 30 to April 2;
Polymarket expands fee coverage: starting March 30, transaction fees will be charged on more markets;
Based Foundation: scheduled to conduct TGE on March 30;
March 31
FTX liquidation trust plans to initiate a new round of payout distribution on March 31;
edgeX will conduct TGE and list on March 31;
April 2
The U.S. will release new data on initial jobless claims an

Trump is about to dump again
This batch of tokens dates back to two months ago, when 18.14 million were transferred from the TRUMP Team Allocation address (team share/distribution wallet) to BitGo. At that time, the total value was approximately $81.64 million.
Similar operations have occurred repeatedly over the past few months:
The team wallet often first transfers large amounts $TRUMP to custodians like Fireblocks/BitGo, then deposits them in batches into CEX exchanges.
$TRUMP , as a political meme coin, had a huge holding in the early team and founder wallets. They use custodians like Bit

Tomorrow is Monday. Currently, the crypto market's fear index has reached 9, the lowest this year at 5, indicating extreme fear. What should we pay attention to after the market opens tomorrow:
First, monitor liquidity during the Asian session; before the data releases, the market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Position management is very important, especially leverage — in low-volatility environments, sudden events can easily trigger stop-losses.
Second, geopolitical tensions (related to the Middle East) and yield pressure are still present. The market is waiting for these d

Historical Major Crashes in the U.S. Stock Market:
1907 Panic -48% Recovered in 10 years
1929 Great Depression -89% Recovered in 25 years
1973 Oil Crisis -45% Recovered in 9 years
1987 Black Monday -36% Recovered in 2 years
2000 Dot-com Bubble -78% Recovered in 13 years
2008 Financial Crisis -57% Recovered in 5.5 years
2020 COVID Flash Crash -34% Recovered in 6 months
2022 Rate Hike Shock -27% Recovered in 18 months
2025 Tariff Storm -23% Recovered in 1.5 months
Will there be a crash in 2026? We’ll see.

BTC Weekend Market Analysis
Yesterday, I warned everyone that it would drop below 69K, and as expected, it fell to the support level around 65K. The weekend market is mainly characterized by consolidation, with a range between 65.5K and 67.6K.
At the daily chart level, even if it drops further from this position, it will form a divergence between price and volume. Therefore, any downward movement from this level presents an opportunity for phased dollar-cost averaging.
There will be a rebound on smaller timeframes, but the rebound will be weak. As long as it doesn't break 67.6K, a second test

Does BP Still Have Hope?
BP is a typical case of everyone selling off after TGE—airdrop participants dumping, FOMO buyers chasing highs getting trapped, community sentiment polarized. Platform data also shows a slight outflow of user funds and a decline in trading volume, but staking rates are rising, indicating some people are choosing to hold long-term.
Fortunately, BP is not purely a hype meme; it has real business operations, regulatory backing, and a long-term narrative—IPO + equity—positioned as the first release/trading hub for Solana projects.
So, is BP still worth considering?
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