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Will the US government shut down again? The probability currently seems quite high!
The longest government shutdown in history (43 days, October 1 - November 12) ended at the end of 2025, and the government is being funded with a temporary extension until January 30, 2026 (4 days remaining from today).
Current situation:
- Negotiations are ongoing in Congress for a budget agreement, but there is serious disagreement between Democrats and Republicans.
- A major crisis is unfolding, particularly regarding the funding of the Department of Homeland Security and ICE (Democrats threatened to block DHS funding after an incident in Minneapolis).
- According to market forecasts, the probability of a shutdown is around 75-79% (some sources say higher).
If an agreement is not reached by midnight on January 30, 2026, a partial government shutdown will occur. This means many federal services will cease and payrolls will be delayed.
Unless Congress passes an extension or a full budget bill, a shutdown appears inevitable.