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#Bitcoin bear market
The 2026 bear market structure is following the same sequence I've been tracking all year:
Crash. Trap. Crash. Trap. Crash.
Here's where we are in that sequence:
Trap 1 is done.
We crashed out of it right on schedule.
Right now we're sitting in the March/April window. A small bounce.
Looks like recovery.
Feels like relief.
It's not recovery.
It's the setup for the next leg down.
May/June brings the next crash.
July gives you a brief trap.
Aug/Sep is where it gets ugly before the cycle resets.
The model has had 0.91 correlation with 2022 all year.
That number hasn't moved.
Projected bottom: $38K - $50k
Projected timing: October 2026
Stay safu 🟠