# Major Events Today - March 26

1. **U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (20:30)** – High-frequency labor market indicator

Expected range roughly around 207K-215K. Based on actual data:
- ① Significantly below expectations (e.g., <205K): Strong employment signal → U.S. Treasury yields likely to rise, dollar strengthens, rate-cut expectations fall back, short-term headwinds for risk assets (stocks, crypto).
- ② Meets or slightly exceeds expectations (210K-215K): Neutral, market may show no dramatic reaction; continue monitoring Fed's policy path.
- ③ Significantly exceeds expectations (>220K): Slower employment signal → Rate-cut expectations heat up, dollar weakens, Treasury yields decline, typically short-term positive for risk assets like crypto ("bad news is good news" logic).

2. **Fed Officials' Remarks (Jefferson, Barr, etc.)** – Validate recent policy trajectory and inflation response

3. **G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting (26-27)** – Focus on statements regarding Middle East/Strait of Hormuz/energy supply