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The war with Iran, triggered by joint US-Israeli operations at the end of February 2026, completely shocked the global oil market. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed or severely blocked, approximately 20% of the world's oil supply was put at risk, and Brent crude oil surged from the pre-war range of $70-75 to $112-115 by the end of March 2026.
Current Prices
$XTIUSD ‌$XBRUSD ‌
- Brent Crude: $112.57-114.81/barrel (March 27 close at $112.57, a daily increase of 4.22-6.30%). It has risen by 47.68% in the last month and 57.79% year-on-year.
- WTI Crude: $99.64-101.18/barrel (March 27, an increase of 5.46-7.09%).
While these levels don't quite reach the 2008 peak ($147.50), they represent the sharpest geopolitical surge since the Ukraine shock of 2022. Similar momentum is seen in futures contracts; the May 2026 Brent contract is trading around $114.57.
Main Drivers of the Rise
1. Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Tanker traffic in the strait, which carries 20 million barrels of oil and significant LNG shipments daily, almost came to a standstill. Due to Iranian threats and attacks, insurance premiums skyrocketed, and the daily number of crossings dropped from 130-240 to 5. This created an effective 8-10 million barrel reduction in global supply.
2. Geopolitical Risk Premium: According to Goldman Sachs, a risk premium of $18 is reflected in prices. The market is pricing in a potential rise of Brent to $140-150 in a prolonged shutdown scenario. 3. Demand and Other Factors: Asia's (especially excluding China) high import dependence and OPEC+'s limited spare capacity supported the rise. However, slight increases in inventories (EIA data) acted as a short-term brake.
Historical Comparison and Monthly Change
Brent prices have followed this trend over the last 6 months (approximate data):
- Early January 2026: ~$73
- Late February (pre-war): ~$75-80
- Mid-March: $90-100 range
- March 27: $112-115
This is one of the largest monthly increases since Covid. While the 2024 average is around $80, March 2026 recorded a record increase.
Short and Long-Term Forecasts
- Short-term (April-May 2026): According to the EIA, Brent will remain above $95; $120+ is possible if the Hormuz risk continues. A short-term ceasefire could bring the price down to $85-90.
- Overall 2026: The EIA forecasts an average Brent price of $66-74 (below $80 in Q3, around $70 by the end of the year). JPMorgan, however, forecasts a bearish price of around $60 in its base scenario; excess supply and inventory accumulation will push the price down.
- Long-term risks: If the conflict lasts more than 3 months, a scenario of $130-150 may come to the fore; however, a quick resolution is expected to bring the price back to the $70-80 range.
Economic Implications
High oil prices are increasing stagflationary pressure. Import bills are swelling in Asia, inflation is being pushed up by 0.8-1 percentage points, and central banks' room for interest rate cuts is narrowing. LNG prices in Europe have also risen by nearly 50%. In oil-importing countries like Türkiye, the current account deficit is widening, and gasoline and energy costs are triggering household inflation.
Things to Watch Out For
The Iran war has pushed oil into the $100+ range in the short term, but this rise is largely due to the geopolitical risk premium. If traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, prices will quickly fall to the $80-90 range; otherwise, new peaks could be seen in the summer of 2026. Markets are currently partially pricing in the worst-case scenario, but OPEC+ production, US strategic reserves, and potential ceasefire developments are the main sources of uncertainty. Volatility is high for investors in the short term; in the long term, the pressure of oversupply is prominent. Current data should be closely monitored because each new development can instantly move prices by $5-10.
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Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, sent a clear message to Senate offices this week: “We cannot support the latest stablecoin yield compromise of the CLARITY Act.” According to an exclusive report by Punchbowl News dated March 25, 2026, Coinbase representatives informed the Senate in a closed-door meeting on Monday that they had “significant concerns” about the new compromise text spearheaded by Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD).
This development is not just an objection from one company; it creates a new and critical impasse in the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act process, which has been moving forward with great hopes for months. Optimism peaked last week with Senator Cynthia Lummis’s statement that “99% resolved, bipartisan compromise coming soon.” Now, Coinbase’s resistance is jeopardizing the bill’s markup process in the Senate Banking Committee.
🕵️What Did the Compromise Propose, and Why Was Coinbase Against It?
The latest text prepared by the Tillis-Alsobrooks duo aimed to tighten stablecoin rewards to prevent "deposit flight," the biggest fear of banks:
- It completely banned balance-based yields,
- It treated all "economically equivalent" rewards like bank interest,
- It only allowed limited rewards based on active use or transactions.
Coinbase, however, argues that this language is too vague and restrictive. The company states that the annual rewards of around 3.5-4% it offers on stablecoins like USDC (approximately $1.35 billion in revenue in 2025) will be severely reduced, users will be deprived of these incentives, and innovation will be undermined. According to Coinbase, despite its claim to "protect innovation," the proposal actually puts crypto platforms at a disadvantage compared to traditional banks.
This is Coinbase's second major objection. In January 2026, a similar compromise led to the withdrawal of support and a postponement of the markup. Now, the division within the sector is deepening: some crypto companies are saying "let's compromise to save the law," while Coinbase and a few other big players want "clear rules without compromise."
Market Reaction and Time Pressure
Following the news, Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) shares fell sharply. Analysts estimate that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has fallen to 61%. The Senate Banking Committee markup, targeted for the end of April, is once again in jeopardy. With the congressional calendar tightening before the 2026 midterm elections, every delay reduces the chances of the law passing.
Senator Lummis' warning that "we can't wait until 2030" remains on the table. However, the banking lobby (ICBA, JPMorgan, Bank of America) continues to argue that stablecoin yields could attract trillions of dollars in deposits. Coinbase, on the other hand, emphasizes that these rewards strengthen dollar dominance and crypto innovation in the US. Win-Win or a New War?
This development shows that the biggest tension between crypto and traditional finance remains unresolved.
- Coinbase's stance: "Rewards that benefit the user must be protected; otherwise, regulation will be worse than the status quo."
- Bank's stance: "Stablecoins shouldn't erode our deposits."
- Other crypto players: "Let the law pass, then we'll fix it in court or through regulation."
Realistic view: Without bipartisan support, the filibuster obstacle cannot be overcome. Coinbase's resistance could kill the law or soften it further. However, a complete "rewards ban" will not pass the Senate.
In conclusion, the CLARITY Act is still alive but its pulse is weak. Coinbase's objection is putting negotiations back on the table. Senators, the Tillis-Alsobrooks team, and the crypto lobby will engage in intense discussions in the coming days. The April markup will either be cancelled or saved by a new compromise.
The US's dream of becoming the "digital asset capital of the world" is being tested once again in this stablecoin yield war. Coinbase's statement that "we can't support it yet" isn't just the voice of one company; it's a critical warning that will shape the future of the sector. We'll be watching – because 2030 is truly a long way off.
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The Rycroft Review is an independent review report commissioned by the UK Government in December 2025 to strengthen political financing in the UK against foreign interference. Prepared by former senior civil servant Philip Rycroft and published on March 25, 2026, the 60-page report comprehensively addresses the risks of foreign actors (including individual threats from states such as Russia, China, and Iran, as well as allied countries) infiltrating UK democracy through financial channels. The report notes that the current political donation system is undergoing long-term erosion but is not in an immediate crisis, highlighting transparency gaps created by low-traceability instruments such as crypto assets. Its key finding is that foreign financial interference is a “real, persistent and sustainable” threat; however, its impact has remained marginal to date thanks to measures taken. Rycroft recommends future-proofing the system through amendments to the Representation of the People Bill.
The most notable part of the report is recommendation number 3 concerning political donations made via crypto assets. Rycroft proposes a **temporary moratorium** for all crypto donations, to be enacted through the Representation of the People Bill. This moratorium would cover small amounts below the £500 reporting threshold and is described not as a permanent ban, but as “an interim period for the regulatory environment to catch up with the reality of crypto.” The reasoning is clear: the true ownership and origin of crypto assets cannot be fully verified, AI-powered sharding techniques can allow amounts to fall below the reporting threshold, and this carries the potential for rapid growth that could undermine public trust. While the report states that “no crypto donations have yet reached the reporting threshold,” it emphasizes the risk of unpredictable growth rates destroying transparency. Rycroft explicitly states: “This is not a harbinger of a permanent ban, but an interim period for regulation to catch up.” The government immediately adopted this recommendation and retrospectively banned all crypto donations from March 25, 2026; parties are required to return such donations within 30 days.
The report also recommends, under recommendation number 1, to limit annual donations by British overseas electors to £100,000. This step aims to reduce the risk of wealthy overseas Britons making unlimited donations to optimize their tax system. This risk has increased as the number of overseas voters has risen from 1.4 million to 3 million under the Electoral Commission 2022. Rycroft also recommends introducing post-tax profit-based limits on corporate donations, bringing “know your donor” rules closer to anti-money laundering standards, and expanding the powers of the Electoral Commission. Other prominent recommendations among the 17 recommendations include: a complete ban on foreign-funded online political advertising, eliminating tax exemptions for foreign lobbying organizations, establishing a ministerial-level accountable mechanism against online interference, and strengthening controls on donations to political parties. The report cites concrete examples such as the Nathan Gill scandal (the case of the former Reform UK Wales leader accepting bribes for Russian interests) to demonstrate the concreteness of the threats.
The government's response has been swift and decisive. As Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced in Parliament on 25 March 2026, the crypto moratorium and the £100,000 overseas donation cap came into effect immediately. Housing, Communities and Local Government Minister Steve Reed fully supported the report, stating that the crypto donation ban is a fundamental step in protecting our democracy against attempts by foreign states to undermine it. These changes will be enacted as an addendum to the Representation of the People Bill and completed before the next general election. NGOs such as Transparency International UK welcomed the moratorium and cap but called for a general cap on all donations (not just overseas). The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, demanded that Reform UK return its existing crypto donations.
From an analytical perspective, the Rycroft Review is a critical turning point in the integration of the crypto sector into mainstream politics. The report doesn't declare crypto "bad"; rather, it presents the suspension as a temporary measure to "build trust" until the regulatory infrastructure matures. This approach allows the UK to close transparency gaps on the political financing side while maintaining its claim to leadership as a country making progress in crypto regulation (e.g., in the stablecoin and tokenization field). However, there are also criticisms: some experts interpret this as "the state's lack of trust in its own institutions," arguing that the real problem is a lack of administrative capacity, not technological capacity. For crypto-friendly parties like Reform UK, it represents a direct financial blow; the party is currently the only mainstream entity accepting crypto donations, and the Electoral Commission has previously requested wallet details. In conclusion, the Rycroft Review is concrete evidence of the UK's will to protect its democracy from foreign financial infiltration. While steps like the crypto moratorium may create uncertainty in the sector in the short term, in the long term it can lay the foundation for a regulated and traceable ecosystem. The full text of the report is publicly available on gov uk, and the progress of the Representation of the People Bill should be closely monitored, as this review offers a framework that will reshape not only crypto donations but political financing as a whole. These developments could set a new standard at the intersection of crypto and politics on a global scale.
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