#巨鲸行为分析 **The difference between retail investors and professional traders often lies in the depth of understanding of breakout signals.**
Over the past few years of market analysis, I’ve developed a method to determine whether a coin truly breaks out—using four dimensions: volume, price, time, and space. This approach has helped me avoid many bull trap pitfalls.
**First, let’s talk about volume**: After a long sideways period, the first increase in trade volume—don’t rush to buy in immediately. The market maker tests the market with a shakeout, and only when volume increases a second time is it a real opportunity. Many people fall for the first volume spike, thinking it’s a signal of takeoff, only to get caught at the top.
**Next, look at price performance**: Don’t worry about the intraday fluctuations; focus on the closing price. If it can steadily stay above the resistance level at close, that’s meaningful. I’ve seen many coins that spike intraday and then fall back, ultimately proving to be bull traps.
**Time dimension is also important**: Preferably, the coin has been sideways for more than three months, with a concentration of holdings below 10%. This indicates that the market maker has accumulated enough, and the subsequent rally will have momentum. Coins that rise within two weeks of sideways movement are often driven by short-term funds that come in and out quickly.
**Finally, space judgment**: You need to identify key resistance levels—these could be the previous crash’s starting point, the neckline of a W bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom, or simply an round number. Once the resistance level is clear, you can roughly estimate the potential upside after a breakout.
By combining these four dimensions, you can generally distinguish between real and false breakouts with about 80-90% accuracy. Of course, the market is always changing, and these methods should be flexibly adjusted based on actual conditions.
Over the past few years of market analysis, I’ve developed a method to determine whether a coin truly breaks out—using four dimensions: volume, price, time, and space. This approach has helped me avoid many bull trap pitfalls.
**First, let’s talk about volume**: After a long sideways period, the first increase in trade volume—don’t rush to buy in immediately. The market maker tests the market with a shakeout, and only when volume increases a second time is it a real opportunity. Many people fall for the first volume spike, thinking it’s a signal of takeoff, only to get caught at the top.
**Next, look at price performance**: Don’t worry about the intraday fluctuations; focus on the closing price. If it can steadily stay above the resistance level at close, that’s meaningful. I’ve seen many coins that spike intraday and then fall back, ultimately proving to be bull traps.
**Time dimension is also important**: Preferably, the coin has been sideways for more than three months, with a concentration of holdings below 10%. This indicates that the market maker has accumulated enough, and the subsequent rally will have momentum. Coins that rise within two weeks of sideways movement are often driven by short-term funds that come in and out quickly.
**Finally, space judgment**: You need to identify key resistance levels—these could be the previous crash’s starting point, the neckline of a W bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom, or simply an round number. Once the resistance level is clear, you can roughly estimate the potential upside after a breakout.
By combining these four dimensions, you can generally distinguish between real and false breakouts with about 80-90% accuracy. Of course, the market is always changing, and these methods should be flexibly adjusted based on actual conditions.
