The dichotomy between risk assets and safe-haven assets has already failed. The framework of thinking about whether BTC is risky or safe-haven is now meaningless.
All assets are essentially liquidity assets, and the only difference lies in their different beta relative to liquidity. The direction and changes in macro liquidity determine everything: during tightening, capital clusters around blue chips, such as AI currently, until tightening collapses; gold at high levels may be rife with speculation, while BTC, which falls first, may absorb the overflow after the bubble bursts.
There is no eternal risk or safe-haven—the only meaningful distinction is an asset's relative value under the current liquidity environment. If one must seek absolute safe-haven, there is only cash, but cash in sovereign currency remains constrained by the stability of sovereign credit. Therefore, cash is not absolute either.
The dichotomy between risk assets and safe-haven assets has already failed. The framework of thinking about whether BTC is risky or safe-haven is now meaningless.
All assets are essentially liquidity assets, and the only difference lies in their different beta relative to liquidity. The direction and changes in macro liquidity determine everything: during tightening, capital clusters around blue chips, such as AI currently, until tightening collapses; gold at high levels may be rife with speculation, while BTC, which falls first, may absorb the overflow after the bubble bursts.
There is no eternal risk or safe-haven—the only meaningful distinction is an asset's relative value under the current liquidity environment. If one must seek absolute safe-haven, there is only cash, but cash in sovereign currency remains constrained by the stability of sovereign credit. Therefore, cash is not absolute either.