Crypto market update: Macroeconomic favourable information being digested, subtle changes in BTC/ETH technicals.

Market Overview: Sideways Consolidation, Waiting for Direction The cryptocurrency market was relatively calm on Thursday, with minor price fluctuations in major coins. Traders are digesting the strong U.S. employment data and assessing their positioning strategies. Bitcoin (BTC today’s market) dipped 0.6%, currently reported at $108,840 (Gate market data), briefly touching $110,590 during the day. Ethereum (ETH latest price) slightly rose above $2,590, but the sideways price movement leaves the direction unclear. Except for Solana ecosystem meme coin Bonk (which surged 10%), the daily price fluctuations of the top 100 cryptocurrencies were mostly in single digits.

Traditional Market Boost: Strong Employment, Diminishing Rate Cut Expectations According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000 and the revised 144,000 for May. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (expected to rise to 4.3%), indicating economic resilience. Driven by this, traditional markets rose: the Dow Jones increased by 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq led with a gain of 0.62%. However, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds jumped to 4.334%, indicating that investors believe the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the near term has decreased, which suppressed stock market gains. At the same time, initial jobless claims fell to 233,000 last week (expected 240,000), and the four-week average dropped to 241,500, further confirming the strength of the labor market. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the 4.25-4.5% range for a longer period.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis: Attempting to Regain Uptrend, Key Resistance Yet to be Broken

The current price of Bitcoin is $109,781, with a moderate daily increase, not a strong rise. After a brief breakout above $110,500, the Bitcoin price trend is currently consolidating near recent highs. It is noteworthy that although today’s increase is small, it has successfully broken through the resistance level of the bearish channel (yellow line) formed over the past 39 days (since the day it reached the historical high of $111,814).

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Current value 60, indicating healthy bullish momentum, not yet in the overbought zone (\u003e70). This suggests that before encountering profit-taking pressure, Bitcoin price prediction still has room for upward movement. The RSI in the 50-70 “sweet spot” usually favors a continued upward trend.
• Average Directional Index (ADX): Current value 12, indicating a weak trend (<20 indicates no clear trend). This suggests that the market is in a Sideways phase, with neither bulls nor bears having the upper hand, often serving as a buildup for subsequent breakouts.
• Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, forming a classic bullish setup (golden cross prototype), especially for medium- to long-term traders, indicating persistent buying pressure and a healthy Bitcoin market structure.
• Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Shows “on” (On) status, indicating that volatility is being compressed (like a spring tightening). When the “squeeze” is released, it often triggers a sharp one-sided market movement of Bitcoin price skyrocketing or plummeting.

In summary: The current slight breakthrough has weakened some bearish pressure, but it is not enough to confirm a short-term bullish outlook. The market is in a delicate balance, and cryptocurrency technical indicators suggest that significant volatility may occur in the near future, with the direction yet to be determined.

Key Price Level (BTC/USD):

• Immediate Support: $108,000 (psychological level and recent consolidation zone)
• Strong Support: $104,000 (50-day EMA convergence zone)
• Immediate Resistance: $110,000 (psychological barrier)
• Strong Resistance: $112,000 (approaching recent cycle high)

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis: Upward resistance in reverse technology, waiting for a breakout signal

Ethereum’s current price is $2,592, with a slight increase during the day. It rebounded strongly from a daily low of $2,374 yesterday.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Current value 57, in the neutral zone. Often indicates that the market is in a transitional phase (previously bearish), and may be building a foundation for Ethereum price rebound, with no immediate risk of a sharp drop due to overbought conditions.
• Average Directional Index (ADX): Current value 12 (same as BTC), also indicating a weak ETH price trend, in a Sideways situation. However, maintaining a low ADX after a significant rise may suggest the market is digesting the gains, preparing for the next wave of Ethereum market (or seen as “smart money” accumulating position).
• Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The chart presents a concerning “death cross” pattern (50-day EMA below 200-day EMA), and despite the two moving averages being close, a “golden cross” has yet to form. This is usually a signal dominated by recent selling pressure. However, today’s ability to rise under this technical bearish condition shows strong buyer intervention; if momentum continues, it is expected to lead to a bullish golden cross.
• Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Displays the “On” state (On), combined with today’s breakout trend, suggesting that Ethereum may be in the early stages of volatility expansion. A breakout upwards when the squeeze is on often triggers a sustained trend.

Key Price Level (ETH/USD):

• Immediate Support: $2,500 (psychological level)
• Strong Support: $2,400 (recent swing low)
• Immediate Resistance: $2,700 (50-day EMA zone)
• Strong Resistance: $2,900 (200-day EMA convergence zone)
• (Source: Decrypt)