在加密貨幣市場中，「抄底」是極具誘惑卻也凶險萬分的博弈。如果你也熱衷於尋找市場的轉折點，這項歷經多輪牛熊驗證的鏈上指標，或許能成為你在茫茫熊市中，精準定位底部的「北極星」。
這項指標被稱為「比特幣盈虧供應量」，主要用來衡量市場中持幣者的整體盈虧狀態 ── 究竟有多少比特幣在帳面上仍處於獲利狀態，又有多少已陷入浮虧被「套牢」。
過去的歷史數據反覆證明，當「獲利中的比特幣供應量」與「虧損中的比特幣供應量」趨於平衡、甚至在圖表上交會時，往往標誌著熊市的底部已然成形，表明市場已進入「投降式拋售」的尾聲，長線布局的黃金窗口隨之開啟。
對於期盼牛市回歸的多頭投資人來說，好消息可能近在咫尺。因為數據顯示，獲利籌碼與虧損籌碼的數量，正呈現出即將「交會」的趨勢。
根據 Glassnode 統計，目前市場上約有 1,110 萬枚比特幣處於獲利狀態，這意味著這些籌碼的持有成本低於當前市價；與此同時，約有 890 萬枚比特幣處於虧損狀態。兩者的差距正在縮小，若這種收斂趨勢持續，極可能重演 2022 年、 2018-19 年的觸底劇本。
在 Glassnode 的分析圖表中，藍色曲線代表「獲利供應量」，紅色曲線則代表「虧損供應量量」。
當比特幣現貨價格波動，穿梭在投資人的總體持倉成本上下時，籌碼就會在這兩個陣營間流動。透過觀察這兩條線的消長，我們可以深刻洞察市場的持倉結構與投資人正面臨的壓力測試。
回顧過往週期，這兩條曲線的「交會點」曾多次精準標記熊市底部：
- 2022 年 11 月： 在 FTX 交易所倒閉的恐慌中，比特幣跌至 15,000 美元 附近，指標出現交會，隨後市場築底反彈。
- 2020 年 3 月： 新冠疫情引發全球流動性危機，比特幣短暫跌破 3,000 美元，該指標同樣發出強烈訊號。
- 2019 年 1 月： 在漫長的熊市寒冬中，比特幣跌至 3,300 美元附近，指標再次確認底部。
- **2015 年：**早期的市場週期中，比特幣在 200 美元上方時也出現過同樣的結構。
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