2月13日消息，比特币在经历数月横盘后，价格波动明显加速，市场进入高风险区间。链上数据显示，2月5日至6日期间，比特币先是大跌14.3%，随后迅速反弹12.2%，短时间内形成剧烈震荡，多空双方均遭遇大规模清算。
来自 Alphractal 的统计显示，30天与180天波动率同步走高。这类情形往往出现在长期低波动阶段结束之后，意味着行情可能从“蓄势”转向“快速定方向”。对高杠杆交易者而言，价格来回扫荡，清算风险显著上升。
更值得警惕的是巨鲸资金动向。追踪大额地址的链上数据表明，当比特币自9.5万美元回落至6万美元附近时，流入交易所的BTC数量明显放大。月均流入量从约1000枚增至近3000枚，仅2月6日一天就有约1.2万枚BTC被转入。自2月初以来，已有7个交易日单日流入量超过5000枚，这种频率在历史上并不常见。
这种集中转入往往与阶段性顶部或恐慌性抛售相伴。当前，抛压信号多于吸筹迹象，意味着短期内资金环境仍偏紧。技术面同样承压，比特币价格远低于20日均线（约7.7万美元），近期仅在6万美元区域出现有限反弹。
动能指标显示下行趋势尚未扭转，RSI维持在40下方，DMI中空头线保持优势。多项信号叠加，表明市场仍处在高波动与高不确定状态。若买盘无法持续跟进，短期走势可能继续承压。
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