渣打銀行（Standard Chartered）在周四發布的報告中，再次下修了對加密貨幣市場的短期展望，並警告未來幾個月可能會進一步下跌，甚至出現最後一波「投降式拋售」，但仍看好今年底前迎來修復行情。
渣打銀行數位資產研究主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 表示，在總體經濟環境逆風未歇的情況下，市場陣痛期將持續：
我認為未來幾個月數位資產價格將經歷更多痛苦，並最終迎來一波拋售潮。在華許（Kevin Warsh）正式接掌聯準會（Fed）之前，總體經濟環境很難提供足夠的支撐力道。
Geoffrey Kendrick 預估，若賣壓延續，比特幣恐將跌至 5 萬美元甚至更低，以太幣則可能下探 1,400 美元。不過，他也強調，這些價位將是絕佳的「進場買點」，並預期比特幣年底有望反彈至 10 萬美元，以太幣則上看 4,000 美元。
值得注意的是，這已是渣打連續多次下修目標價。該行去年 12 月才將比特幣目標價從 30 萬美元砍至 15 萬美元，如今再降至 10 萬美元；以太幣目標價也從 7,500 美元腰斬至 4,000 美元。
除了兩大加密貨幣，Geoffrey Kendrick 也同步調降了 2026 年底對主要競爭幣的預測，這次調整多屬於「按市價重新估算」，使各幣種的相對表現與比特幣、以太幣走勢趨於一致：
- **Solana（SOL）**年底目標價從 250 美元下修至 135 美元；
- **瑞波幣（XRP）**年底目標價 從 8.00 美元大幅下修至 2.80 美元；
- **幣安幣（BNB）**年底目標價從 1,755 美元下修至 1,050 美元；
- **Avalanche（AVAX）**年底目標價從 100 美元暴砍至 18 美元。
兩大元兇：ETF 買盤套牢、降息預期落空
為何對加密貨幣市場短期走勢如此看空？Geoffrey Kendrick 點出兩大關鍵因素。
**第一是 ETF 投資人的信心潰散。**報告指出，比特幣現貨 ETF 的持有量自 2025 年 10 月的高峰以來，已流失近 10 萬枚比特幣。更慘的是，目前還在場內的平均買家成本約落在 90,000 美元，這意味著大量籌碼處於「嚴重套牢」狀態。這群投資人現在更傾向於逢高減碼或停損出場，而非逢低加碼。
**第二是總體經濟情勢壓抑市場情緒。**近期美國經濟數據喜憂參半，市場普遍預期聯準會要等到 6 月領導層換屆後，才可能有明確的降息動作。這種不確定性，讓加密貨幣在未來幾個月難以吸引新的增量資金流入。
儘管短期觀點偏空，但 Geoffrey Kendrick 強調，加密貨幣市場長期前景仍然穩固，這波跌勢與過往熊市相比仍相對溫和，有別於 2022 年市場接連爆發 Terra/Luna 崩盤、 FTX 倒閉等系統性風險事件，目前市場並沒有出現大型平台倒閉潮，顯示隨著機構參與度提高，市場已變得更具韌性。
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Gerelateerde artikelen
Startale Expands to Abu Dhabi to Scale Regulated Blockchain Infrastructure
Startale Group, the global crypto infrastructure company behind Japan’s largest public Astar Network chain, is taking one of the world’s fastest-growing state-backed crypto ecosystems in
Abu Dhabi
The company was selected as one of 27 firms from more than 2,400 global applicants for the Hub71
DailyCoin32m geleden
Altcoins Surge Back Above $1.3T as Markets Rally After Greenland Crisis Resolution
On January 22, altcoins rebounded nearly 10% to $1.39 trillion due to eased global tensions, with Ethereum leading gains. Despite some volatility, the combined market cap stabilized at $1.32 trillion as other altcoins also showed modest recovery.
Coinpedia44m geleden
KelpDAO $290M Exploit Attributed to North Korea's Lazarus Group
LayerZero attributed a $290 million exploit of KelpDAO's cross-chain rsETH configuration to North Korea's Lazarus Group on April 18, describing the attacker as a "highly-sophisticated state actor." According to LayerZero, the incident was limited to KelpDAO's rsETH setup and did not spread to other
CryptoFrontier1u geleden
If ETH Breaks Below $2,211, Major CEX Long Liquidations Could Hit $1.047 Billion
Coinglass data warn that ETH near $2,211 or $2,441 could trigger large liquidations on major CEXs: long liquidations up to $1.047B if it falls, or short liquidations up to $944M if it rises.
GateNews2u geleden
ETH and Altcoins Could See Parabolic Surge Upon Following Bullish Russell 2000 ATH Path
ETH and altcoins coils see parabolic surge upon following a bullish indicators.
The Russell 2000 just set a new ATH at 2,798 for the first time.
This new ATH indicator is a bullish signal for altcoins.
The crypto community is pleased to see that both BTC and ETH are trading at higher
CryptoNewsLand2u geleden
