2月24日消息,受“人工智能恐慌交易”升温及宏观风险情绪恶化影响,加密市场承压下行,以太坊、Solana和瑞波币跌幅持续扩大,主流加密资产周内普遍录得8%至11%的回调。比特币当日一度跌至约62900美元,单日下跌约2.1%,周线跌幅达7.5%,价格仍被限制在2月初拉升后形成的60000美元至70000美元震荡区间,市场更倾向于将其视为盘整区而非明确底部。
山寨币表现明显弱于比特币。以太坊价格回落至约1829美元附近,周跌幅约8%;XRP下跌超过10%,SOL跌幅超过11%,狗狗币亦接近两位数回调。主流山寨币同步走弱,反映出市场风险偏好下降,比特币以外资产的买盘明显不足,资金更趋谨慎配置。
链上分析机构CryptoQuant指出,当前山寨币估值仍处于近五年高位区间,抛售压力显著上升,持有者主动减仓迹象增强,而新增资金主要集中在市值更大的资产上。这种结构性卖压通常不会伴随剧烈清算,而是以缓慢阴跌形式持续压低价格,使短线动量交易难以捕捉反弹机会。
市场技术面同样偏空。分析师Alex Kuptsikevich认为,比特币日线正在构建看跌三角旗形结构,若有效跌破65000美元中枢区间,下行趋势或进一步确认;反之,若重新站上70000美元,则将削弱空头形态。当前6万至7万美元区间已演变为长期持有者与新入场资金的关键博弈区。
与此同时,一份来自Citrini Research的报告提出,人工智能对支付、软件及物流等行业潜在冲击正在引发科技资产重估,进而拖累风险资产配置。加密市场虽与股票并非完全同步,但对流动性收紧和避险情绪高度敏感。在风险资本持续收缩背景下,若比特币长期维持区间震荡且缺乏强势反弹信号,其技术结构将逐步向空头倾斜,加密市场波动率和下行压力可能继续维持高位。
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