2月24日消息，比特币近期持续下跌，引发市场对复苏时点的关注。根据Glassnode数据，90日已实现盈亏比已跌破1，这是自2022年以来的首次，表明市场已进入超额亏损阶段。历史经验显示，这种状态通常持续约六个月，意味着比特币可能在今年第三季度末之前维持低位。
已实现盈亏比反映在链上交易中盈利和亏损的占比，当比率低于1时，亏损占主导，投资者多为投降式抛售。过去的熊市周期——2015年、2018年及2022年——均显示此模式，低位期间往往伴随市场恐慌，但也是潜在买入机会。
月度数据提供另一视角。2月份可能成为比特币连续第五个月下跌，历史最长连续下跌周期为6个月，之后通常出现强劲反弹。投资者Gayu_BTC指出，极度恐慌时期往往出现在市场转折点附近，低位买入可能在复苏时获得最大收益。
从价格回撤角度来看，比特币较历史高点已下跌约47%，统计显示，当回撤达到50%时，一年胜率约90%，中位数收益率可达95%；回撤70%时，胜率甚至达到100%，最差收益也有25%。这一数据表明，在当前价格水平存在潜在机会。
BeInCrypto最新分析强调，6万美元是比特币的关键分水岭，该价位可能决定未来几个月走势方向。投资者可关注市场情绪和链上指标，以判断买入或持仓策略。
历史数据与链上分析结合显示，比特币复苏或在4月初逐步显现，但市场波动仍大，投资者需谨慎评估风险与机会。
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