Glassnode: Is the Metaverse doomed? On-chain data tells you the answer.

Source: Glassnode; Compilation: Wuzhu, Golden Finance

This week, we introduced another exploration for CBD use cases – analyzing metaverse tokens. Despite falling prices and fading hype, on-chain data suggests that major investors remain active, steadily accumulating and reducing the cost base.

Does this signal a long-term bet on the revival of the metaverse? Let’s first review how to analyze and interpret CBD data, and then apply this knowledge to the latest trends in the metaverse.

Understanding the Cost Base Distribution

Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) tracks the position of the token supply concentration based on the average cost basis of holders. By analyzing the changes in supply distribution, we can identify investor behavior—whether they are accumulating, selling off, or reallocating their holdings.

How to interpret the CBD heatmap:

• Color Intensity (Supply Distribution)

Warm colors (red/yellow) indicate a high concentration of supply within a given price range, while cool colors (blue/green) indicate a lower supply volume.

• Y-axis (cost basis)

Each horizontal slice represents the price range of the last movement of a portion of the supply, showing how holders adjust their cost basis over time.

Tracking these changes helps us find potential market turning points where cumulative or distributed trends may be indicative of future price movements.

Metaverse Tokens: What Cost Basis Distribution Data Reveals

In this analysis, we focus on metaverse tokens – The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS) – They were one of the most prominent assets during the metaverse boom in 2021. While the hype around the metaverse has subsided, our focus has shifted away from user activity and instead uses the Cost Base Distribution (CBD) data to examine investor behavior.

Rather than evaluating adoption metrics or in-game activity, we’re analyzing how token holders adjust their positions over time. Are they selling, holding steady, or accumulating at a lower price? By tracking supply changes at different price levels, we can gain insight into how investor beliefs have evolved in the post-hype phase and whether accumulating trends imply long-term confidence in these projects.

The Sandbox (SAND): Steady accumulation in a bear market

Despite the price fluctuations, the on-chain data shows that it continues to accumulate. Holders with strong convictions are steadily increasing their positions, strengthening their confidence in the project’s long-term potential.

Decentraland (MANA): Buy the dip

The concentration of supply has significantly increased, reaching around $0.60, reflecting an increase in purchasing activity after the price drop. This indicates that investors see the price drop as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of further declines.

! 2nQgzlVzSJycE16dC080dKZz9Uf905H8DtPbhlTq.jpeg

Axie Infinity (AXS): Long-term confidence remains strong.

Despite the ongoing downward trend, on-chain data shows that a significant number of positions are gradually increasing. This pattern indicates that certain investors remain confident about the future of Axie Infinity.

! rsXYYrSn1Z6l8xDvEPThWOgHlDdL6DdNXkyr9uNQ.jpeg

Will the Metaverse Revive?

The speculative hype surrounding the metaverse may have subsided, but on-chain activity suggests otherwise. The continued accumulation of major metaverse tokens shows that many investors see these projects as undervalued opportunities, not failures.

Does this set the stage for a future recovery? While price action remains uncertain, the data shows that the confidence of key market players remains strong – and they are positioning accordingly.