Bitcoin bull market trigger! Experts: China's entry drives the push to $1 million by 2028

According to Herbert Sim, the “Father of Bitcoin,” the current Bitcoin bull market has not yet touched the tip of the iceberg regarding the future development of the cryptocurrency market, because China has not yet entered the competition. He believes that the previous three bull markets were led by the Chinese market, not the U.S. market. Since 2017, Sim has been firmly convinced that Bitcoin will reach $1 million, and with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, he has revised his forecast from 2030 to 2028.

China is the true driver of the Bitcoin bull market

(Source: X)

In an interview, Herbert Sim explicitly stated: “The current issue is that Chinese people are actually still in the preparation stage. They haven’t even truly entered the cryptocurrency market yet. I have deep insight into this because I have been working with Chinese people. This means that a Bitcoin price of $69,000 will be the benchmark for the start of the bull market.”

Sim told the magazine that previous bull markets were led by the Chinese market, not the U.S. market, even though the U.S. “hopes” to lead the trend. “You should know that the last three real Bitcoin bull markets were led by China, not the U.S… They want to lead, but in reality, China is the driving force.”

This view challenges the mainstream narrative of the current market. Since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., many analysts attribute this bull run to the entry of Wall Street institutions. However, Sim’s perspective offers a different angle: the explosive growth has not yet arrived because the strongest buying force in history—Chinese investors—are still on the sidelines.

Historical data shows that China has indeed played a key role in past Bitcoin bull markets. When Bitcoin first broke $1,000 in 2013, it was mainly driven by trading volume from Chinese exchanges. Although the 2017 bull market ended after Chinese regulations tightened, the initial upward momentum was largely from Chinese investors. Even during the 2021 bull market, despite China’s ban on cryptocurrency trading, many Chinese investors participated through overseas exchanges.

Sim has been involved in the cryptocurrency field since 2010, when he was still studying economics in university. At that time, Bitcoin was almost worthless, with a maximum price of only $0.4. That year, Sim founded Crypto Chain University, a research and content aggregation website where industry experts uploaded research papers and promoted the cypherpunk movement. Since then, he has been an outspoken supporter of Bitcoin and has become an influential authority in the field.

The logic behind the $1 million prediction

Unlike most opinion leaders in the crypto space, Sim claims to have maintained the same bold Bitcoin price prediction for the past seven years. “Since 2017, I have believed that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030,” Sim said. With recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs, Sim has played his trump card and revised his prediction. Now, he believes Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028.

This forecast is not based on wishful thinking but on an in-depth understanding of China’s market dynamics. When Sim led the Huobi native cryptocurrency project Huobi Token (HT) in 2018, he gained a large following in China. The token raised $400 million in just 13 seconds, quickly earning him the nickname “Father of Bitcoin” in China. This experience gave him firsthand insight into the purchasing power and market influence of Chinese investors.

Sim’s career also adds credibility to his prediction. Before entering the crypto field, he achieved success with his company WardrobeTrendsFashion, a popular media company in the Asia-Pacific region that received awards from Google. He eventually sold the company for “several million dollars.” Subsequently, he received a call from the crypto exchange Huobi, inviting him to lead global operations as Chief Operating Officer, reporting directly to the CEO.

Core basis of Sim’s $1 million prediction

Chinese investors have not yet truly entered the market: Currently, the market is mainly driven by U.S. and European investors; China’s huge buying potential has yet to be unleashed.

Accelerated institutional adoption via Bitcoin ETFs: ETF approval has expedited institutional involvement, moving the original 2030 target forward to 2028.

Historical cycle validation: Past three bull markets were led by China, and this pattern is expected to repeat.

Scarcity narrative reinforcement: As more countries establish Bitcoin reserves, supply-side pressure will push prices higher.

Cultural significance of $148,000

Sim’s prediction for the next Bitcoin bull market top is equally striking. “So for those panicking and selling now, good luck, because when the bull market arrives (I predict the bull market price will reach $148,000), they will be left far behind,” he said.

He explained that this prediction stems from his strong belief that China will lead the next bull run. The number 148 holds special cultural significance in China, symbolizing “a lifetime of wealth.” In Mandarin, the pronunciation of “one” (yī), “four” (sì), and “eight” (bā) is interpreted as “one generation wealth,” implying lifelong prosperity. This cultural symbol has a powerful psychological impact on Chinese investors.

This approach of combining technical analysis with cultural psychology is relatively rare but not unfounded in the crypto market. Chinese investors are known for their emphasis on numerology and auspicious numbers; buildings with floors ending in “8” often sell for higher prices, while those ending in “4” are avoided due to its pronunciation similarity to “death.” If Bitcoin approaches the $148,000 range, this cultural symbolism could indeed trigger concentrated buying among Chinese investors, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

From a technical perspective, $148,000 is not an unreachable target. From the current approximately $105,000, an increase to $148,000 would require about a 41% rise. Historically, Bitcoin’s late-stage bull runs often see explosive gains of 50% to 100%. In the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to nearly $20,000 within weeks; in 2021, it increased from $30,000 to $64,000 in just three months.

Current market positioning and investment advice

Sim declared in November that the Bitcoin bull market has already begun but emphasized that the current stage is just the beginning. The absence of Chinese investors means the market has not yet entered the frenzy phase. This perspective offers important guidance: if Sim’s judgment is correct, current prices are still in the early to mid-stage of the bull market, not near the top.

However, Sim is not keen on making bold predictions about meme coins. Compared to his forecast of a seven-figure Bitcoin, he tends to be more cautious about other assets. “I officially recommend everyone to look for some coins with solid fundamentals,” he said. This advice reflects the risk awareness of seasoned investors: while pursuing high returns, main holdings should be in assets with strong fundamentals.

Sim’s social media influence also lends weight to his views. He has 272,700 followers on X and about 2.1 million on Instagram. His presence in the crypto industry is somewhat unconventional because he was already well-known in high-end fashion circles, so he doesn’t need to promote junk coins to quickly grow his following.

For ordinary investors, Sim’s predictions provide a clear risk-reward framework. If Bitcoin truly reaches $1 million by 2028 from the current $105,000, the potential increase is about 850%. Even accounting for possible deviations, reaching $500,000 would still mean a 376% gain. Such return potential is almost impossible to achieve with traditional assets.