Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has shown a clear pattern of differentiation. On one hand, the overall risk appetite continues to cool, with traders and institutional funds choosing to wait and see or withdraw; on the other hand, some key long-term funds are quietly positioning themselves, creating an important foreshadowing for the future market.
According to on-chain data, small and medium-sized holding addresses have been continuously reducing their ETH holdings over the past few months. As macro uncertainty rises, these investors tend to lower their risk exposure and avoid potential volatility. In stark contrast, the true “Ethereum whales” have started to take action. Since July, large addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have been consistently increasing their holdings, with their net purchases approaching historical highs.
This signal is significant. Historical experience shows that ultra-large whales often do not chase short-term trends, but prefer to gradually accumulate positions when valuations are low and market sentiment is cooling. Currently, the whales are continuously accumulating, indicating their strong confidence in the medium to long-term fundamentals and future price potential of Ethereum.
In contrast to the spot whales, there is a noticeable cooling in derivatives and institutional funds. Since August, the open interest (OI) of Ethereum futures and perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 50%. This change indicates that leveraged funds are systematically exiting, and the overall risk exposure across major exchanges has significantly contracted. Although a leading CEX still holds the largest share, the overall level is clearly below the previous peak.
The capital flow at the ETF level is also leaning towards caution. Data shows that last week, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $644 million. Even though the ETH price remains relatively stable, institutional funds still choose to continue withdrawing, reflecting a lack of clear expectations from traditional capital regarding short-term trends.
However, from a more macro perspective, this is not a signal of a market crash. The decrease in open interest and the outflow of ETF funds more represent a leverage clean-up and risk reset, which often occurs when the market enters a consolidation phase. Meanwhile, on-chain whales continue to buy, providing important structural support for the market.
In summary, Ethereum is currently in a critical phase of “deleveraging and reallocating assets.” In the short term, it may still primarily focus on consolidation and fluctuation, but against the backdrop of gradually releasing risks and long-term capital quietly positioning itself, the market is building momentum for the next directional trend.
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