Bitcoin's four-year cycle is intact! VanEck: After 2026's consolidation year, an epic breakout awaits

VanEck Digital Asset Solutions Head David Schassler states that Bitcoin has lagged behind the Nasdaq 100 index by about 50% this year, making it a top-performing asset in 2026. Digital asset research director Matthew Sigel believes the four-year cycle remains intact, and 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation. The current decline reflects temporary liquidity pressures, and Schassler openly states he has been buying.

The four-year cycle of Bitcoin remains intact, supporting the logic of a consolidation year in 2026

VanEck digital asset research director Matthew Sigel’s analysis offers a more macro perspective on Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026. He points out that after reaching a high in early October 2025, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle “still remains intact.” This pattern indicates that 2026 is more likely to be a year of market consolidation rather than a year of skyrocketing or crashing.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory originates from the halving mechanism. Every four years, miner rewards are halved, reducing supply growth, and historically, the cycle peak occurs within 12-18 months after halving. The halving was completed in April 2024, and the peak was reached in October 2025, perfectly aligning with historical patterns. Sigel’s view is that since the cycle logic has not been broken, subsequent consolidation and re-acceleration should follow the historical script.

Three key catalysts for 2026

Liquidity environment improvement: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 2-3 times in 2026 as expected, liquidity will be released to boost risk assets.

Corporate allocation surge: As more regulated institutions enter, corporate capital allocation will become a major catalyst.

Regulatory framework refinement: An increasing number of jurisdictions are establishing clear and transparent regulatory frameworks, significantly increasing institutional participation.

YouHodler market head Ruslan Lienkha told Cryptonews that crypto corporate capital allocation will remain a primary market driver in 2026. He pointed out: “In the short and medium term, major cryptocurrencies will still be heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions—especially interest rates, liquidity trends, and broader risk sentiment.”

Lienkha added that the establishment of clear and transparent regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in more jurisdictions will also facilitate broader institutional participation. “We expect by 2026, the participation of banks and other financial institutions in the market will increase significantly.” This deepening of institutional involvement will provide more stable buying support for Bitcoin, reducing the extreme volatility driven purely by retail sentiment in the past.

The definition of a “consolidation year” is not sideways trading without movement, but rather building a base amid volatility to accumulate momentum for the next upward cycle. Historical data shows that after a cycle peak, Bitcoin usually undergoes a 6-12 month correction before entering a new upward phase. If 2026 follows this script, prices may fluctuate in the $80,000–$100,000 range, shaking out leverage and panic selling, and challenge new highs in 2027.

Bitcoin lags Nasdaq 50% but has the greatest rebound potential

Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has indeed been disappointing. While the Nasdaq 100 index hit new highs driven by the AI boom, Bitcoin continued to decline after reaching its cycle peak in early October. In the report titled “2026 Plan: Our Portfolio Managers’ Forecast,” Schassler states that this roughly 50% performance gap is not a structural problem for Bitcoin but rather creates conditions for a strong rebound in 2026.

From a relative valuation perspective, when an asset significantly underperforms the market, it often means its valuation has been compressed to more attractive levels. The Nasdaq 100, driven by the AI narrative, is at a historical high valuation, while Bitcoin, after months of correction, has a significantly improved risk-reward profile. Institutional investors, when making allocation decisions, tend to take profits in overcrowded sectors and shift to undervalued assets.

After weeks of controlled decline, Bitcoin’s price is at a critical juncture. Price volatility has narrowed, indicating the market is entering a consolidation phase rather than a renewed sell-off. This technical pattern often precedes a trend reversal. When volatility compresses to an extreme, a directional breakout is usually imminent.

Schassler’s interpretation of the current decline is very optimistic. He emphasizes that the Bitcoin market plunge “reflects weakened risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures,” with the key word being “temporary.” He points out: “As currency devaluation intensifies and liquidity returns, Bitcoin always reacts strongly. We have been buying.” This “fear when others are greedy” strategy is typical of successful institutional investors.

Gold breaks through $4,500 and its competitive relationship with Bitcoin

Another noteworthy forecast in the report is the price of gold. Gold has broken through the $4,500 per ounce level for the first time, becoming a market focus. Schassler predicts gold will continue to surge to $5,000 per ounce in 2026. Year-to-date, gold has risen over 70%, a rare magnitude in history.

Gold’s relationship with Bitcoin is both competitive and complementary. When investors seek hedges against inflation and geopolitical risks, gold is the first choice. But when risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin’s resilience is greater. Schassler is optimistic about both gold and Bitcoin, implying he expects 2026 to be an environment of “persistent macro uncertainty but improved liquidity.” In such an environment, safe-haven assets and high-beta assets may both benefit.

The strength of gold also indirectly affirms VanEck’s view on Bitcoin. When traditional safe-haven assets perform so strongly, it indicates concerns about fiat currency purchasing power and systemic risks are rising. This environment is precisely when Bitcoin, as “digital gold,” can shine. If Bitcoin proves its correlation with gold in 2026, it will attract more allocation capital.

As a veteran asset management firm managing over $16 billion, VanEck’s forecasts are based on deep institutional research and macro cycle understanding. The dual endorsement from Schassler and Sigel provides strong institutional credibility for the narrative of Bitcoin’s rebound in 2026.