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Major ETFs like FBTC and ARKB fail to drive new highs, showing liquidity is weakening despite market expectations.
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BlackRock’s IBIT buying slows, meaning OTC demand may not absorb selling, increasing market vulnerability.
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Short-term holders profit spikes suggest local trend exhaustion, hinting at possible price pullbacks soon.
Bitcoin investors are facing growing concerns as ETF liquidity fails to return, highlighting potential downward pressure on prices. According to CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet, major ETFs like Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK’s ARKB directly impact Bitcoin’s price movements. “Bitcoin’s price has closely followed the cumulative flows of FBTC and ARKB,” Mignolet explained.
However, FBTC has struggled to break its previous high since March last year, while ARKB has been trending lower since July. This shows that liquidity is clearly losing strength, despite expectations of a rebound.
The pattern mirrors what was observed with MicroStrategy (MSTR), which peaked around November 2024 and then failed to set a new high for almost a year. Consequently, the market is not seeing the kind of liquidity many anticipated. BlackRock’s IBIT remains an essential liquidity source, but most of its buying occurs off-market through OTC deals.
To be blunt, Mignolet warned, “If IBIT had not been buying at the current pace, we would likely have already seen a much deeper drop.” Additionally, even IBIT’s liquidity is weakening compared to previous levels, suggesting further caution.
Short-Term Holders Lock in Profits
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech observed that Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) have shifted from taking losses to locking in profits. “Late buyers finally got liquidity and are selling into it. Big STH profit spikes tend to show up near local trend exhaustion, not at the start of a clean leg higher,” IT Tech noted. This signals that recent price gains may attract selling pressure rather than sustained upward momentum.
Market Implications
Therefore, investors must be aware that the capital that has come in could flow back in, but for now, the market is trending downwards. Should the demand for sale in the OTC market fail to materialize, the market might soon be inundated with coins. Furthermore, the reduced market liquidity for ETF and institutional investors adheres to prudent trading practices.
As a result, ETF flows and profit spiking need to be closely watched for warning signals of a market exhaustion event. Furthermore, it is essential to have a proper understanding of on-market versus off-market liquidity.
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