The sentiment divergence in the global Bitcoin market is widening. Recent data shows that while capital is rapidly withdrawing outside the United States, institutional investors from Wall Street remain calm and continue to hold their positions.
This “cold-hot” gap is especially evident in the futures market. According to Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is the main battleground for US hedge funds and institutional investors, still indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium to maintain Bitcoin long positions.
By observing the “one-month annualized basis” (the premium of futures prices relative to spot prices), it is clear that CME’s premium level is significantly higher than that of Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange outside the US.
Greg Cipolaro pointed out, “The basis in offshore markets has decreased more noticeably, indicating that the market’s appetite for highly leveraged long positions is cooling down.”
He believes that the widening basis between CME and Deribit has become an instant thermometer for measuring the “risk appetite” of funds in different regions worldwide: US institutions are still buying, but offshore investors have started to pull back.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 before rebounding. At that time, there was speculation that breakthroughs in quantum computing technology could potentially crack Bitcoin’s encryption, sparking panic selling.
However, NYDIG believes that the data does not support this theory. First, Bitcoin’s price movements are actually highly correlated with publicly listed quantum computing companies—such as IONQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS). The logic is simple: if quantum computers truly were the “Bitcoin ender,” then when quantum technology advances and related companies’ stock prices soar, Bitcoin should plummet.
In reality, both Bitcoin and these quantum companies have moved in tandem downward. In other words, this appears to be a broad risk appetite cooling for “long-term, future-oriented assets,” rather than a specific technical concern about Bitcoin.
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