XRP fell 2.95% on February 23, to $1.3522, hitting a three-week low, with the overall crypto market plunging 3.80%. Anthropic’s Claude Code sparked market concerns over AI disrupting tech stock profits; Trump’s immediate imposition of 10%–15% tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling added dual pressure, dragging down the entire crypto sector.
AI Impact and Tariff Uncertainty: Two Negative Feedback Loops
The transmission mechanisms of these two major negatives differ, yet they resonated on the same trading day.
In AI, Claude Code’s code optimization capabilities triggered systemic doubts about traditional corporate profitability prospects. Tech stocks typically have high capital expenditures; if AI tools can quickly replace existing software systems, the borrowing costs for related companies could rise, directly compressing valuations. This logic triggered risk-off selling in tech stocks, which, through the high correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, affected the crypto market.
Regarding tariffs, the Supreme Court’s decision was expected to signal policy easing, but Trump’s subsequent response dashed market expectations. Notably, in October 2025, when Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, XRP plummeted from $2.8406 to a low of $0.7773 within a single day, closing down 15.29%, highlighting XRP’s high sensitivity to tariff policies.
ETF Capital Flows and Technical Outlook
Fund flow data show clear divergence. Since the start of the year, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of $2.6 billion, while US XRP spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $64.13 million, indicating institutional investors hold a relatively positive stance on XRP. However, the continued large-scale outflows from BTC ETFs remain a structural drag on overall crypto buying interest. XRP has fallen 26.4% since the start of the year, nearly matching Bitcoin’s 26.0% decline, confirming their market correlation remains tight.
Key Technical Levels for XRP
(Source: Trading View)
Major Support Levels: $1.1227 (February 6 low) → $1.00 (key psychological support) → $0.7773
Major Resistance Levels: $1.50 → $1.6550 (50-day moving average) → $2.00 → $2.0944 (200-day moving average)
Technical Signal: XRP The current trading price is below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day MA staying well below the 200-day MA, indicating a short-term bearish technical structure.
Analysts suggest that the mid-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.00 depends on continued progress of the US Senate’s Market Structure Bill and sustained net inflows into XRP spot ETFs. If the bill is officially passed, the long-term (8–12 weeks) target could rise to $3.00. Attention should also be paid to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) rate hike trajectory; a hawkish stance could trigger yen carry trade unwinding. Similar events from July to August 2024 caused XRP to drop from $0.6591 to $0.4320, representing a significant external tail risk to monitor.
FAQs
Why does AI development impact the prices of XRP and other cryptocurrencies?
XRP and other cryptos are highly correlated with Bitcoin, which in recent years has become increasingly correlated with US tech stocks. When AI breakthroughs trigger risk-off selling in tech stocks, capital withdraws from risk assets and propagates through Bitcoin to the entire crypto market, affecting XRP as well.
What are the differences in capital flows between XRP spot ETFs and Bitcoin spot ETFs?
Current data show that since the start of the year, US XRP spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $64.13 million, while US Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of $2.6 billion. This divergence reflects institutional demand for XRP, but the large-scale outflow from BTC ETFs continues to suppress overall market sentiment.
What is Yen Carry Trade, and what risks does it pose to XRP?
Yen Carry Trade involves borrowing low-interest yen to invest in higher-yield assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) adopts unexpectedly hawkish rate hikes, narrowing the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, the yen could appreciate, triggering large-scale unwinding of carry trades. This can cause a sudden liquidity drain in crypto markets; the historical case in August 2024, when XRP dropped from $0.6591 to $0.4320, illustrates this transmission mechanism.
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