Gate News: On March 11, Polymarket’s prediction market data showed that two traders collectively invested $13,200 to buy the “No” option on the prediction that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen before April 30. The average opening price for these bets was 45¢, and the current probability of the “No” option is 46%. The market generally believes that U.S. President Trump is concerned that soaring oil prices could trigger inflation and is seeking to end the conflict as soon as possible. Iran, on the other hand, is employing asymmetric tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, with CNN citing sources revealing that Iran has recently deployed dozens of mines in the strait. According to the market definition, if before April 30, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (including container ships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, etc.) as reported by IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average reaches or exceeds 60 vessels, the market will settle as “Yes.” Based on trading patterns, this trader may have taken profits or cut losses at some point, rather than betting on the final outcome of the event. Trading accounts are: 0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6; 0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Prediction Markets Market Share Distribution Revealed, Kalshi Leads at 37.8%
Gate News message, latest data shows the market share distribution among prediction market platforms. Kalshi leads with 37.8% market share, followed by Polymarket at 35.3%. Opinion Labs xyz holds 14.4%, Predict dot fun accounts for 8.5%, and Crypto Com represents 2.5% of the market.
GateNews2h ago
Polymarket Prediction Market Outperforms Wall Street Analysts in Earnings Forecasts, Study Shows
A study by Wolfe Research reveals that anonymous bettors on the Polymarket platform may predict corporate earnings more accurately than Wall Street analysts, with significant accuracy for both optimistic and pessimistic bets. Despite potential, these prediction markets account for a small trading volume.
GateNews8h ago
Kalshi Launches Parental Portal and AI Verification to Combat Underage Misuse of Prediction Market
Kalshi is introducing a parental portal for identity verification and selfie authentication to prevent minors from bypassing age restrictions. This follows scrutiny over its compliance with prediction market regulations amid ongoing lawsuits.
GateNews21h ago
Prediction Market Trading Volume Expected to Exceed $1 Trillion by 2030, Bernstein Report Highlights
Bernstein's report forecasts prediction market trading volume will surge from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity, blockchain support, and mainstream integration. Industry revenue is expected to rise from $400 million to $10.8 billion, with retail brokerages gaining a competitive edge.
GateNews04-15 13:16
Trader with 100% Win Rate Bets $12.3K That MicroStrategy Will Hold Over 1M BTC by Year-End
A trader known as epsteinfiles has placed a $12,300 bet with Lookonchain, predicting that MicroStrategy will hold over 1 million BTC by December 31, 2026, with a flawless track record in past bets.
GateNews04-15 03:33
