Monero (XMR) may open notable disbursement opportunities for late-stage bullish investors if the Q4/2025 trend scenario repeats. Along with the overall altcoin market rally, the “Santa rally” wave has helped XMR surge approximately 7%, from around $432 to above $460. This recovery momentum is supported by a slight decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance, creating a “breathing space” for altcoins to regain momentum.
However, behind this impressive rally remain potential risks. Liquidity is still thin, and trading volume remains low, making XMR’s upward movement vulnerable—especially if these conditions persist into the early new year.
Nevertheless, in this context, XMR could still become an attractive entry point for investors seeking short-term profits.
Will XMR fall back to the $400–420 support zone?
The $400–420 USD price zone (marked in white) previously set a peak in May and served as a key resistance area throughout the second half of 2025 before being officially broken in mid-December.
Therefore, maintaining this area as a new support zone would be crucial, potentially providing a foundation for the next upward wave. Notably, this price zone coincides with the 50-day (MA) moving average—an important technical indicator.
Throughout Q4, XMR’s price repeatedly rebounded each time it retreated to test the 50-day (white line) moving average. Therefore, if this price behavior pattern continues and XMR revisits the moving average, it could be seen as a new buying opportunity.
Source: TradingViewHowever, currently, the MACD indicator is approaching a potential bearish cross— a signal that could trigger a short-term correction. This scenario increases the likelihood of XMR turning downward toward the moving average zone. Past bearish crosses in October, November, and December all ended with price cooling off at the 50-day MA.
This development further supports the accumulation scenario above and indicates that chasing buyers should be more patient. In a positive scenario, XMR’s immediate target is around $470, representing a potential gain of about 15% from the current support zone.
Conversely, if the price breaks below and sustains under the 50-day MA, the entire bullish thesis will be invalidated.
No signs of an overheated market yet
The weakening sentiment in the overall market could pressure XMR into a correction in early 2026. However, at present, this risk is not yet clearly reflected in the futures market.
Data shows that retail investors’ leverage participation in XMR remains limited. The lack of excessive euphoria indicates the market remains relatively healthy and not overheated.
Source: CryptoQuantIn the past, periods of strong retail inflows have often been followed by significant corrections.
Nonetheless, current market sentiment is not yet strong enough to trigger a sustainable new bullish trend for XMR. In fact, a cautious mood still dominates during the Christmas week. If this sentiment gradually shifts toward a more positive outlook, XMR’s recovery momentum could continue to strengthen in the near future.
Source: SantimentSN_Nour
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitmine adds additional collateral of 61,232 ETH. Tom Lee: The crypto winter is about to end
The cryptocurrency asset management company Bitmine once again added 61,232 ETH (about $142 million) to its staking on April 22, bringing its total staked ETH holdings to 3,395,869 ETH, with a total market value nearing $7.9 billion. Bitmine chairman Tom Lee said that Ethereum is in the final stage of a “mini crypto winter,” and that multiple signs point to a recovery that is about to come.
MarketWhisper1h ago
Gate Daily Report (April 22): A U.S. PACE bill is set to allow the Federal Reserve to pay for access; Kalshi plans to launch sustainability futures
Bitcoin (BTC) sees a short-term rebound, temporarily trading at around $76,230 as of April 22. A bipartisan PACE bill in the U.S. would seek to allow the Federal Reserve’s payment system to be connected, with support from the crypto industry. According to The Information, Kalshi is considering launching sustainable futures to expand its cryptocurrency business.
MarketWhisper1h ago
Bitcoin rebounds to $76k, with Trump extending the Iran ceasefire to ease geopolitical pressure temporarily
U.S. President Trump announced on April 22 that the ceasefire deadline with Iran would be extended. At the request of Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff and Prime Minister, the U.S. will wait for Iran to submit a unified proposal before moving forward, while continuing to maintain the naval blockade and keeping its forces on standby. Iran refused to attend the next round of negotiations originally scheduled to take place in Islamabad, and the Strait of Hormuz has closed again. Bitcoin rebounded to $76,000, and analyst DonAlt views this as a key early warning level that determines the direction of the market outlook going forward.
MarketWhisper1h ago
Crypto Fear & Greed Index Drops to 32, Market in Panic Mode
Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 32 from 33, signaling continued panic; the 0-100 scale marks fear below 50 and greed above 50.
Abstract: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 32 on April 22, signaling ongoing panic after a decline from 33 the previous day. The index operates on a 0-100 scale, with readings below 50 indicating fear and readings above 50 indicating greed.
GateNews2h ago
The Iran-U.S. talks did not take place as expected, stocks in the U.S. fell, and Bitcoin traded in a range.
U.S.-Iran talks did not go as expected, and the stock market fell; Vance postponed his visit to Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue. U.S. March retail sales rose 1.7%, beating expectations. Waller was nominated as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing independence; market expectations are broadly neutral. Bitcoin is still consolidating in the 74k–77k range, spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for five straight days, and ETH ETFs have also seen net inflows day after day. Sentiment is stabilizing, and the volatility spread indicates that risk appetite is declining.
ChainNewsAbmedia2h ago
BUY ALTCOINS NOW” — Altseason Index Signals Massive Pump Ahead, But Are These 4 Coins Worth the Risk?
The Altseason Index shows a compression pattern that often precedes strong market expansion.
XRP reflects stability, while Aptos and Sui show higher growth but increased volatility.
Pi remains speculative due to unclear liquidity and limited exchange presence.
The altcoin market is
CryptoNewsLand3h ago
