BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter reveal that Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be implemented within days and would target a few military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse Trump’s demand to cease uranium enrichment activities, the United States will launch a large-scale attack on the regime’s facilities — potentially aiming to overthrow the Tehran government.
After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, though senior aides have repeatedly presented it to him. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on larger-scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided to order any attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such strikes could provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.
Additionally, market sources indicate that Iran, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members, stated, “If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets within Iran’s defensive response framework.” Trump’s remarks suggest “a real risk of military aggression.” Iran does not seek escalation or war and would not initiate conflict first.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 26%, the probability before March 15 to 52%, and the probability before the end of March to 60%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Hey Anon Announces Launch of “Pandora” Prediction Market on Ethereum
Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.
CoinDesk1h ago
The probability of "Polymarket" that the "Department of Homeland Security of the United States will be closed for more than 60 days" has risen to 75%, increasing by 37% in 24 hours.
The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary homeland security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, with funding lasting until May 22. However, the Senate is expected to reject it, potentially extending the shutdown. The probability of a related shutdown has significantly increased in market trading.
GateNews1h ago
The Democratic Party leads in 2028 with a 57% probability as Republican credibility declines due to the Iran campaign.
The Democratic Party is gaining an edge ahead of the 2028 U.S. presidential election, with a record 57% chance of winning. This shift comes amid declining support for the Republican Party, largely due to negative public reaction to U.S. military actions in Iran.
TapChiBitcoin4h ago
Intercontinental Exchange invests an additional $600 million into Polymarket, bringing its total investment to $1.64 billion
Intercontinental Exchange adds $600 million investment to Polymarket, bringing the total to $1.64 billion. Trump emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin, while Yilihua states the cryptocurrency market has performed poorly for four years. The U.S. plans to release a draft of stablecoin yield provisions, and Ripple's CEO says the CLARITY Act may be delayed until May. California bans public officials from trading on insider information. The crypto industry enters the "Shirt Era," with blockchain and AI integration driving development. Lido proposes to buy back LDO tokens, and Ripple and Stellar founders jointly invest $1 billion in AGI research.
GateNews4h ago
The P2P.me team has apologized for betting on its own fundraising goals on Polymarket, and the proceeds will be transferred to the MetaDAO treasury.
The P2P.me team admits to placing bets on financing goals on Polymarket without timely disclosure of this action. The team will liquidate all related positions and return the profits, emphasizing that MetaDAO was unaware and plans to establish relevant policies.
GateNews6h ago
The Governor of California signed an executive order prohibiting public officials in the United States from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order prohibiting state-appointed officials from profiting in prediction markets using non-public information, emphasizing the maintenance of government integrity and public trust, and criticizing recent insider trading issues among internal personnel.
GateNews6h ago
