Betting on Polymarket that Khamenei will step down before March 31, probability soars to 93%

Encourage innovation! U.S. judges ban Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets and halt the prosecution of Kalshi

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from using gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets, while Kalshi insists its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

Y Combinator completes its first funding round using a stablecoin, paying Totalis $500k in USDC

Y Combinator makes its first fully stablecoin investment through the Solana network, paying Totalis, a prediction-market startup, $500k in USDC, and plans to open up stablecoin payment options for all supported startups. Totalis will use the platform to execute stablecoin-to-fiat trades.

Prediction platform Kalshi previews a new product on April 27; the community speculates it may introduce a perpetual prediction market

Gate News message. On April 14, the prediction platform Kalshi released a video teaser, announcing that it will launch a new product on April 27. The video shows a green spiral gradually forming an everlasting ring, finally displaying the words "Timeless" (eternal). The community speculates that this update may be introducing an open-ended perpetual prediction market without an expiration date, breaking through the existing time-limit constraints of Kalshi’s event contracts, and improving trading flexibility.

2028 U.S. election forecast: Vice President approval hits a new low, and Vance still maintains a slim lead

The 2028 U.S. election prediction market has opened, and although Vice President JD Vance’s approval rating has fallen to a historical low, he still remains in first place on major platforms. Vance’s net approval rating has dropped to -18%, influenced by factors such as inflation and oil prices. The trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi shows that competition is still intense. Analysts believe poll data may be volatile, and the situation remains unclear.

Polymarket’s probability for “Israel launching strikes against Yemen before April 30” has fallen to 14%, down 32% over the past 24 hours

On April 14, the probability on Polymarket that Israel will carry out attacks against Yemen before April 30 fell to 14%. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will host talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon to discuss a ceasefire and a peace agreement. After diplomatic mediation was launched, market expectations for Israel’s new front were significantly reduced.

Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge prohibits Arizona from regulating prediction markets and pauses the prosecution of Kalshi

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from using its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have reached differing decisions on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.