On March 2, news broke that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died in an airstrike incident, and prediction markets related to his death are facing strong criticism from U.S. political circles. Some U.S. senators are calling on regulators to restrict prediction market contracts settled on personal death, quickly bringing crypto prediction platforms and related financial products into the spotlight.
Data shows that on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, contracts related to the timing of the Iran airstrike have traded over $529 million. Meanwhile, on the prediction platform Kalshi, trading volume for contracts on whether Khamenei will remain as the Supreme Leader has exceeded $50 million, with about $20 million traded just on Saturday alone. Following confirmation of the airstrike, these contracts rapidly moved toward settlement.
According to documents submitted by Kalshi to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), all positions are settled based on the last transaction price before Khamenei’s death. The platform then paused trading and closed the contracts. However, there are discrepancies between the settlement rules described on the market page and the official documents, raising user concerns. The market remained active for hours between the airstrike and the death confirmation, becoming a point of controversy.
Kalshi later issued a statement acknowledging ambiguities in some rules and announced that all market fees would be refunded. Additionally, any positions opened after Khamenei’s death will be fully refunded.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found that six newly created accounts profited about $1 million by accurately predicting the timing of the Iran attack on February 28. These accounts almost exclusively bet on the attack date, with some trades completed hours before the airstrike began. Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, noted that war and conflict-related events often attract informed traders to bet early, and anonymous trading environments may amplify this risk.
U.S. Senator Adam Schiff, along with several Democratic colleagues, has jointly written to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, demanding that regulators ban prediction market contracts related to personal death and requiring a response by March 9. Industry organization Coalition for Prediction Markets also publicly stated that contracts involving death events should not appear in U.S. markets.
Analysts believe that as the intersection of war, politics, and crypto prediction markets continues to expand, regulators may strengthen oversight of these platforms in the future. The legality and ethical boundaries of prediction market contracts are expected to become new issues in financial regulation.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Insider information! Will Trump call for a ceasefire by the end of April?
The recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict have been escalating continuously.
The U.S. 82nd Airborne Division has canceled the "Joint Readiness Training Center" rotation, the normally sea-lifted 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade is being airlifted, and blood supply reserves at U.S. military bases in the Middle East have increased by 500%. The largest overseas hospital of the U.S. Department of Defense—Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany—has suspended some civilian services.
The last time this combination of actions occurred was just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
In the midst of this tense atmosphere, Trump suddenly posted that there had been "very, very good and productive conversations" between the U.S. and Iran, and announced that the U.S. would pause military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. In the early hours of March 27, Beijing time, Trump posted again, stating that the pause would be extended until April 6.
This objective fact contrasts with Trump’s
BlockBeatNews1h ago
The next U.S. presidential "conservative primary": JD Vance wins with 53% over Marco Rubio's 35%.
At CPAC 2026, a conservative conference in the United States, Vice President JD Vance became the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee with 53% of the vote, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed second with 35%. During the conference, Trump was absent, and divisions within the party surfaced, particularly over disagreements regarding a war with Iran. The competition between Vance and Rubio is becoming increasingly evident, and Polymarket predictions indicate that their odds of securing the nomination are roughly similar.
動區BlockTempo7h ago
Inside the Trump administration, there were discussions about seizing Halk Island.
The Trump administration has recently been wavering on its stance toward the war. The White House warned that if Iran does not abandon its nuclear ambitions, it could face a devastating strike, while also considering seizing Hark Island to counter the weapon threat. Market predictions show that in the short term, the odds that Iran will no longer control Hark Island are relatively low.
BlockBeatNews7h ago
AI surpasses humans in prediction markets with super-fast processing speed.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the prediction market by analyzing vast amounts of data in real-time, outperforming human capabilities. This leads to instant reactions to news and market trends, raising concerns about fairness and power concentration.
TapChiBitcoin8h ago
California governor signs an executive order prohibiting government officials from insider trading in prediction markets.
Gate News reports that on March 29, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order prohibiting government appointees from using non-public information obtained during their official duties to profit from insider trading in prediction markets. The executive order specifies that public officials appointed by the governor are not allowed to use "confidential or non-public information" to bet on political or economic events related to their positions. The ban extends to their spouses, family members, and former business partners. Newsom stated that public service should not become a tool for profit and that the boundaries between power and interests need to be clearly defined.
GateNews8h ago
